Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

Rates Are Over 7%, But Irvine and Tustin Closings Still Rose

By James Deokar

Real estate, Primary buy box - Irvine / Tustin Core — PRIMARY

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. That is a number that stops a lot of conversations before they start. But here is what the data actually shows: buyers in Irvine and Tustin kept closing. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 770 homes sold across this market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 8.8% from the same period a year ago.

The headline number is encouraging. The ZIP-code detail is where it gets more useful, because not every part of this market moved the same way. Some areas saw prices soften while sales volume climbed. Others saw prices rise while days on market stretched. Knowing which ZIP you are in changes what you should do next.

Pending sales across the combined market rose 5.4% year over year, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That tells you the pipeline is still filling. Inventory slipped just 0.9%, so supply stayed roughly steady while demand grew. That combination tends to keep sellers in a reasonable position, though it does not mean every home sells quickly or at full price.

The Rate Context

Freddie Mac also reported the 15-year fixed rate at 6.68% as of October 22, 2026. Nationally, Realtor.com noted that rates topped 7% in September 2026 for the first time since January 2025. That same report put price cuts at 20.8% of listings nationally, the highest share since October 2022. Irvine and Tustin are not immune to that pressure, but the local volume numbers suggest buyers here are still transacting.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. That is a national figure and does not describe any single ZIP code here. The local picture is more varied, as you will see below.

Median Sale Price by ZIP Code

Prices moved in different directions depending on the ZIP. Some areas dipped a little. One rose sharply. The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked each of these for the three months ending August 31, 2026.

Where Prices Rose

ZIP 92603, which covers Turtle Rock and the hills above UC Irvine, recorded a median sale price of $2,750,000 in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 27.9% from the same period in 2025, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Sales volume there jumped 50% year over year, from 34 to 51 closings. More buyers competing for a limited set of homes can push prices up, and that appears to be part of what happened here.

ZIP 92606 also showed strength. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median price there at $1,460,000, up 14.1% year over year. The average sale came in at exactly 100% of list price, and 36% of homes sold above list. That is notable even as the share of quick contracts dipped slightly.

ZIP 92705, covering the east Santa Ana hills near Irvine's border, posted a median of $1,760,000, up 5.1%. It also had the fastest median time to contract in this market: 36 days on market. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed 40.3% of homes there went under contract within two weeks of listing, up 12.2 points from a year ago.

Where Prices Softened

ZIP 92602, covering parts of Northwood and Orchard Hills, saw the sharpest price dip. The Real Estate Data Aggregator recorded a median of $2,180,000 there, down 13% from a year ago. Sales still rose 14%, and pending sales climbed 10.9%, so demand did not disappear. Prices pulled back, but buyers showed up. That is worth knowing if you are pricing a home in that ZIP right now.

ZIP 92612 saw a similar pattern. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median at $1,100,000, down 11.4%, while the number of homes sold jumped 33.3% to 80 closings. More volume at lower prices often means buyers found the entry point they needed. For sellers, it signals that list price discipline matters more than it did a year ago.

ZIP 92618, the largest ZIP by volume with 171 closings, recorded a median of $1,475,000, down 4.5%. Days on market improved by 10 days, and pending sales held near prior-year levels. The price dip here was modest, and the market stayed active.

How Fast Are Homes Moving

Days on market varied meaningfully across ZIPs. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed 92705 at 36 days, the quickest in this group. ZIP 92618 sat at 60 days, the longest. That 24-day spread matters when you are planning a move or setting a pricing timeline.

Months of Supply: A Useful Gauge

Months of supply tells you roughly how long the current inventory would last at the current sales pace. Under three months generally favors sellers. Above six tends to favor buyers. Most ZIPs here sat in the middle, which means neither side holds all the leverage.

ZIP 92780 in Tustin stood out with just 2.2 months of supply. Inventory there fell 16.9% year over year, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator, while sales rose 5.5%. Nearly 4 in 10 homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. That is a tighter market than most of the ZIPs around it.

Above-List Sales: Still Happening, But Less Common in Some Areas

Nationally, Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings took a price cut in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. Locally, above-list sales still happened, but the share varied widely by ZIP.

ZIP 92606 had 36% of homes sell above list, and its average sale-to-list ratio hit 100%. ZIP 92612 was the other end: only 3.8% of homes sold above list, down 6.2 points from a year ago. Both are Irvine ZIPs. The difference matters if you are deciding where to list or what to offer.

What This Means for Sellers

Volume is up and pending sales are rising. That is a reasonable foundation. But in several ZIPs, prices dipped from last year even as sales climbed. That tells me buyers are moving when the price is right, not just because inventory is limited. List price strategy is doing more work than it was twelve months ago.

The ZIPs with the tightest supply, 92780 and 92705, still show sellers getting close to or above list price. The ZIPs with more supply, 92618 and 92602, require more patience and more precise pricing.

What This Means for Buyers

A 7.32% rate from Freddie Mac raises monthly costs meaningfully. But the data shows that other buyers are not sitting out. Pending sales across this market rose 5.4% year over year. Waiting for rates to fall has a cost too: you are competing with others who made the same calculation.

ZIPs with softer prices and more supply, like 92618 at 5.8 months and 92612 at 3.8 months, may offer more room to negotiate than ZIPs like 92780 at 2.2 months. That is where the local detail pays off.